Will a Gen Z Wave Transform the 2022 Midterms?

Youth political engagement is hard to predict

Historically, young people tend to sit out the midterm elections. Yet the 2018 midterm elections witnessed a significant spike in youth turnout, a trend that continued in 2020. It was also not limited to voting. Across the board, youth political participation—activities that include attending a march or donating money to a campaign—was also much higher in 2020. While political engagement among young voters is still far lower than among older voters, it was large enough to make a difference. Will this burst of youth activism be sustained in 2022? 

John Della Volpe, director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics, certainly thinks so.  He is predicting a “Gen Z wave” in this year’s election. Forty percent of young voters (age 18 to 29) in the most recent Harvard Youth Poll conducted by Della Volpe reported that they will “definitely” vote this year, nearly identical to 2018. 

Will Young People Vote? 

I’m not quite so bullish on youth turnout this year. First, there are structural impediments to voting, including a raft of new voting restrictions passed last year. Second, the Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade may not help motivate young voters as much as some initially thought. Third, the national political landscape looks different than it did in 2018 and 2020. Fourth, young voters’ party ties are weakening. 

After the 2020 election, 19 states passed more restrictive voting laws. These measures may be especially burdensome for younger voters. For instance, in Texas, the lack of early voting locations near college campuses and voter identification requirements may limit voting among students. These restrictions can make a difference. Researchers at CIRCLE (Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement) found that making voting easier through the introduction of things like mail-in voting, same-day registration, and early voting programs increases youth turnout. 

Second, abortion may not be quite as potent a political issue as it seemed. Most young adults support abortion rights, and young women care a lot about this issue. In fact, a recent survey we conducted found that no issue was more important to them. Yet, it does not seem to have translated into greater enthusiasm to vote—young women were the least likely group to be following the 2022 campaign. There’s also some evidence that concerns about abortion peaked in the summer and have since declined.  

Third, the 2022 election does not feature a president who was deeply unpopular among young adults. Former President Trump loomed large in the last two elections (even if he was not personally on the ballot in 2018), and young people, especially young women, were incredibly hostile towards him and his brand of politics. When it comes to turnout this matters, because, as political scientists have noted, “negative partisanship has emerged in recent elections as a driver of voter turnout and vote choice.” 

Lastly, despite their liberal leanings, young people have become increasingly ambivalent in their partisan commitments. According to Gallup, in 2021, more than half (52 percent) of young adults identified as politically independent, a significant increase over the past couple of decades. In 2001, roughly four in ten (41 percent) young adults were independent. Liberal independents are far less committed to coming out to support Democratic candidates than liberal Democrats.  

A Youth Gender Divide 

An engaged youth vote would be good news for Democrats, who have outperformed Republicans among voters under 30 in every election this century. In the 2020 presidential election, young voters supported Joe Biden over Donald Trump by a 24-point margin (60 percent vs. 36 percent). This year, young voters again appear poised to support Democrats by an outsized margin. An NBC poll finds that more than twice as many Gen Z voters say they want Democrats rather than Republicans to control Congress (62 percent vs. 30 percent). 

There is still an additional wrinkle in all of this. In my research, the politics of young men and women seem to be diverging. In a past newsletter, “The Political Gender Gap is Exploding,” I documented the rising liberal politics of young women. Now, we’re seeing a gender divide in candidate preference too. While young women prefer Democratic candidates by a nearly 25-point margin, young men are evenly divided. Polls that focus exclusively on generational politics without accounting for gender differences are missing critical information. 

With only a few days left until Election Day, early voting does not suggest a surge in youth participation. Early voting tallies by NBC News (shown above) find that only five percent of early voters are under 30 while seniors make up more than half of all early voters. A recent analysis by Politico found that “young voters have contributed to a smaller fraction of [early and absentee] turnout compared to this time two years ago.” Or maybe they’re just procrastinating. We’ll know a whole lot more on November 9th.