Our Most Intriguing and Startling Survey Findings of 2024

It was an eventful year full of twists and turns, but these charts stood out

Every year, I dedicate the last newsletter to showcasing some of the most intriguing charts and figures from our surveys. It’s a great opportunity to review all the work that was done over the past 12 months, and in some cases, revisit research that I’ve completely forgotten about. A year is a long time!

The selection of these charts and figures is, of course, subjective, but this year my decisions were based, in large part, on what resonated among people who read and write about our research.

1. The Diverging Political Paths of Young Men and Women

From The Democratic Party’s Identity Crisis

According to the AP VoteCast poll a majority of young men voted for Donald Trump in 2024. This is the first time in more than two decades that young men supported a Republican over a Democrat. Yet, it should not have come as a surprise. There were signs that Democrats were struggling to appeal to young men even before Harris became the nominee. At the beginning of the year, I wrote a piece titled “Will Young Men Vote for Trump in 2024?” that suggested Trump was poised to make significant gains among these voters. He did.

What made me confident in that prediction was the fact that young men have been shedding Democratic affiliation for well over a decade. Today, more young men identify as Republican than Democrat, yet young women identify as Democrat by a roughly 2 to 1 margin. In the 21^st century, Democrats have had sizable advantages among young voters in presidential elections. Now only half of young voters reliably support them.

A lot has been written about the youth gender gap, but one of my favorite pieces was written by Claire Cain Miller in the New York Times. She raised a lot of great points, but this I thought was critical: “In recent years, the two parties have been seen as offering men different visions of their place in American society, researchers said. While the right has embraced conventional masculinity, the left has seemed to shun it, leaving many young men looking for an alternative.”

2. The Class Dimension of America’s Friendship Recession

From Disconnected: The Growing Class Divide in American Civic Life

Americans today have fewer close friends than they did just over 30 years ago. But the friendship recession has not hit Americans equally. Those without college degrees have experienced a more precipitous contraction of their friendship networks. As I wrote in our August report: “The survey reveals a massive educational disparity in Americans’ number of close friends. Roughly one in four (24 percent) Americans with a high school education or less report having no close friends, compared to only 10 percent of college graduates. College graduates are twice as likely as those without any college education to have at least six close friends (33 percent vs. 17 percent).”

The research struck a chord with New York Times columnist David Brooks, who wrote “Society worked as a vast segregation system, elevating the academically gifted above everybody else. Before long, the diploma divide became the most important chasm in American life. High school graduates die nine years sooner than college-educated people. They die of opioid overdoses at six times the rate. They marry less and divorce more and are more likely to have a child out of wedlock. They are more likely to be obese. A recent American Enterprise Institute study found that 24 percent of people who graduated from high school at most have no close friends. They are less likely than college grads to visit public spaces or join community groups and sports leagues.”

3. Fear Grows After #MeToo

From After #MeToo Have Women Become More Afraid of Men?

In survey research, there are moments when you are convinced that a research finding will take off. A nearly 20-point increase in concerns about sexual assault in less than a decade is remarkable. I was convinced this finding would make waves.

From my September newsletter: “After 2017 there was a dramatic increase in the concern women reported about becoming victims of sexual assault. In 2017, 39 percent of women under the age of 50 said they often or sometimes worried about being sexually assaulted. A year later, that figure rose to nearly half (47 percent). Concern dipped during the pandemic years, but by 2023, a majority (55 percent) of women under the age of 50 said they worried about being sexually assaulted at least occasionally.”

Fear, mistrust, and anger are increasingly governing the interactions between men and women. The #MeToo movement made it clear to Americans that everyone knew someone who had been a victim of sexual abuse. Overnight, stories of sexual harassment and assault appeared on social media. It was impossible to avoid hearing the stories. While the movement brought much-needed attention to the pervasive problem of sexual misconduct and proved to be cathartic for survivors, the widespread media attention may have heightened a sense of anxiety among women.

I wish this finding sparked a conversation on this critical topic, but it didn’t. I still believe it’s an extremely important trend and one that gives us additional insight into how #MeToo continues to reverberate across society.

4. Gen Z Women Continue to Leave Religion; Are Gen Z Men Coming Back?

From Young Women Are Leaving Church in Unprecedented Numbers

I’ve been studying trends in religiosity for a long time--The growth of the religiously unaffiliated was my PhD dissertation topic. The dramatic decline in religious affiliation is one of the most important social trends of the past 50 years.

It’s a topic that has received considerable attention, and not much has changed over the past decade—although there are some signs that the pace of change is slowing. Earlier this year, I started looking at the gender gap in religiosity among the youngest Americans and a surprising pattern emerged. Women have traditionally been more religious than men, but in our most recent surveys, it was young women who were the least religious. I wrote about it back in the spring: “Young women today, at least on some measures, are less religious than young men. In our 2023 survey, we found nearly four in ten (39 percent) Z women identifying as religiously unaffiliated compared to 34 percent of Gen Z men.”

I’m not the only one to document this change. Over at Graphs About Religion, political scientist Ryan Burge has noted this shift as well. Our findings struck a chord, and appeared in news stories in USA Today, Slate, and the New York Times; it also provoked animated conversations on Reddit and YouTube.

I thought this from Ruth Graham at the Times was intriguing:

“Religion is coded right, and coded more traditionalist” for young people, said Derek Rishmawy, who leads a ministry at the University of California, Irvine. For some young men he counsels, Christianity is perceived as “one institution that isn’t initially and formally skeptical of them as a class,” especially in the campus setting, Mr. Rishmawy said. “We’re telling them, ‘you are meant to live a meaningful life.’”

What’s in Store for 2025?

Next year promises to be busy. I’ll be writing my book, Uncoupled, for the next six months, and then I will turn to several exciting new research projects. The first will explore how diversity impacts community belonging, trust, and civic-mindedness, and another project will focus on artificial intelligence (AI), friendship, and dating. My goal is to continue writing for Storylines. I’ve enjoyed the opportunity to explore ideas, share new findings and engage with readers. I hope you’ve found it worth your time. I continue to appreciate your support and look forward to building on a great 2024! I wish you all a very happy new year!