Are White Evangelical Christians Finally Tiring of Trump?

Support for the former president is fracturing along familiar lines

It’s a question that has been asked and answered countless times: have white evangelical Christians finally had enough of Trump? After every embarrassing incident or alienating antic, the answer has always been unequivocally and emphatically no. Throughout Trump’s presidency, white evangelical Christians proved steadfast in their support, providing crucial votes in two close elections. According to the Pew Research Center, 84 percent of white evangelical Christians voted for Trump in 2020, higher than any previous Republican candidate. 

Heading into the 2024 Republican primary, reporters are again asking this same question. Tim Alberta, at The Atlantic, suggests there is a shift occurring among evangelical leaders on Trump. He writes: 

The scale of his trouble is difficult to overstate. In my recent conversations with some two dozen evangelical leaders—many of whom asked not to be named, all of whom backed Trump in 2016, throughout his presidency, and again in 2020—not a single one would commit to supporting him in the 2024 Republican primary. 

It’s still not clear how many white evangelical Christians share these feelings. Many evangelical leaders discovered—often the hard way—that their influence over attitudes toward Trump is limited. Their unwillingness to go on the record suggests that these leaders may not be speaking for their members.

White Evangelical Christians Still Like Trump 

One thing is clear, Trump remains broadly popular among white evangelical Christians. Recent surveys show that roughly two-thirds have a positive view of Trump, down a bit since the high point early in his presidency but still robust. 

If Trump is the Republican nominee, he can almost certainly count on strong evangelical support in the general election. Over the past decade, Republican identification among white evangelicals has surged. In 2022, 82 percent of white evangelical Christians identified as Republican or leaned towards the Republican Party, a 21-point jump from 2012 when 61 percent identified as Republican. 

In head-to-head matchups with Republican contenders, Trump’s advantage among white evangelical voters seems muted. One Monmouth poll shows Desantis leading Trump among white evangelical Christians, but the margin is relatively slim. What’s more, the same poll shows Desantis’ overall lead over Trump is wider than it is among white evangelical Christians. More recent surveys of the Republican primary also show Trump regaining momentum. 

The Rising Educational Divide Among Evangelical Christians 

If evangelical leaders are speaking for anyone in their churches it’s most likely college graduates. There is a growing educational divide among white evangelicals’ views of Trump. A late 2021 poll found a 17-point gap in Trump’s favorability between white evangelicals with a college degree and those without. Nearly three-quarters (73 percent) of white evangelical Christians without a college education view Trump favorably compared to 56 percent of those with a four-year degree.  

There’s a notable enthusiasm gap as well—white evangelicals without a college education are twice as likely as college graduates to have “very favorable” views of Trump. But this I find especially noteworthy: nearly one in three (30 percent) white evangelical Christians with a college degree have a very unfavorable view of Trump. 

For white evangelical Christians without a college degree, views of Trump have changed little. In 2017, a Pew poll found that roughly three-quarters (74 percent) had a favorable view of Trump. In contrast, white evangelical Christians with a college degree feel much less positively about Trump than they once did. In early 2017, more than two-thirds (68 percent) of white evangelicals with a college degree viewed Trump favorably. 

College-educated evangelicals are not an insignificant constituency, either. Historically, white evangelical Christians lagged the public overall in educational attainment, but they have experienced considerable growth over the last couple decades. In 2022, 28% of white evangelical Christians reported having a bachelor’s degree.  

There are a couple of reasons we might expect white evangelical Christians without a college degree to remain loyal to Trump. First, they are far less likely to show up to religious services with any regularity, diminishing the influence that their pastors have on them. Only about half of noncollege white evangelicals report attending services at least once a week compared to roughly seven in ten white evangelicals with a degree. The social dynamics between the two groups also vary in important ways. Sixty-one percent of white evangelical Christians without a college degree report that all of their close personal connections—the people who occupy the inner ring of their social circle—support Trump. In contrast, only 37 percent of college-educated evangelicals report that all of their close personal contacts support Trump. Past work has shown that our personal relationships exert considerable influence over our political beliefs and behavior.  

In one way, Trump’s tepid support among college-educated evangelical Christians mirrors his struggles with these voters in general. President Biden won 60 percent of college-educated voters in the 2020 election, capturing an even larger share than Hillary Clinton did in 2016. Trump’s weakness among college-educated evangelicals reveals a significant vulnerability for him in both the primary and the general election. Trump’s recent indictment and cascading legal troubles are unlikely to significantly alter the political calculus for white evangelical Christians, and this growing educational rift may well decide the next election.