A Generation-Defining Moment for Young Women

For young women abortion has become an overriding concern

The Dobbs decision that overturned Roe vs. Wade’s 50-year precedent legalizing abortion in the US was a seismic event. But as polls started trickling out this summer, abortion ranked relatively low among the public’s concerns. Even as it became increasingly important for Democrats, abortion did not overtake other pressing issues such as inflation for everyday Americans. 

In more than 15 years of conducting public opinion surveys, I have never seen abortion outpace concerns about “kitchen table” issues, such as inflation, the availability of jobs, health care, or even the cost of education. But for young women, no issue is more important than abortion. A brand-new poll that I conducted with my colleague, Karlyn Bowman, found that 61 percent of young women (age 18 to 29) believe abortion is a critical issue, a larger percentage than for any of the other eight issues we asked about. They ranked abortion 25 points higher than the general public overall. 

Yet, despite intense interest among young women, a blue wave is unlikely to materialize in response to Dobbs decision. The abortion issue buoyed Democrats’ national polling throughout the summer and may help Democratic candidates remain competitive in a few races, but it’s not enough to swing the midterms. Young people are notoriously difficult to motivate in off-year elections. Even in our poll, young people are paying less attention to the midterm elections than pretty much everyone else. What’s more, there is a growing political rift between young men and women. While young women prefer Democratic candidates over Republican candidates by more than a 2-to-1 margin, young men are evenly divided in their candidate preferences. 

A Cultural Realignment? 

The 2022 election will be over in a few weeks. What happens after the votes are counted? National elections will do little or nothing to resolve the issue of abortion while state legislatures will continue to discuss, introduce, and pass new laws on abortion. 

The long-term political impact of Dobbs may be muted. Young women have been trending leftward in their politics for some time. As I wrote recently, “young women have become significantly more liberal over the past decade.” Close to half identify as liberal, a massive increase over the past few years. The Dobbs decision might push young women further left, but given their current trajectory, it’s hard to see how this is more than a marginal influence on their shifting ideological commitments. 

However, if you look beyond politics, Dobbs’ influence on American culture and society could be considerable. If abortion remains a central concern for young women, it could impact many of their life choices, including who they want to work for, where they live, their trust in organized religion, or even what they are looking for in a partner or spouse.  

In 2020, a poll I conducted found that more than half of young women felt it would be very difficult if not impossible to date someone who disagrees with them on abortion. One in three said that the abortion issue was a dealbreaker for them. With the demise of Roe, it’s not hard to see how abortion will become a more salient dating consideration. 

Historically, women have been more religious than men, and it has been mothers more than fathers who have prioritized passing on religious values to their children. If churches and congregations actively promote laws restricting abortion, such as the Catholic Church in the recent Kansas referendum, they may alienate young women who largely support legal abortion. This may already be happening. For the first time in recent decades, young women are now less religious than men, and their attitudes toward organized religion are significantly less positive today. The percentage of young women who believe churches and religious organizations “bring people together” dropped 10 points since 2019. 

Bigger than Abortion 

Roe has dominated the headlines in recent weeks, but it’s not the only formative event young women have lived through. The MeToo movement had a pronounced effect on young women. Previous research has shown that “compared with older women, young women are more likely to say the [MeToo] movement has affected how they think about sexual harassment and assault.” Young women may also have been uniquely affected by the election of Donald Trump. Compared to men and older women, young women were far more critical of Trump throughout his presidency. A 2018 survey found that three-quarters of young women disliked Trump, including 56 percent who had a “very unfavorable” view of him. In the wake of MeToo and Trump’s election, women have become much more pessimistic about the way American society treats women. Gallup found that satisfaction with how women are treated in the US plunged from 61 percent in 2016 to 46 percent in 2018.  

The culmination of these experiences may also lead young women to feel their lives and experiences are connected—that what happens to one woman could happen to any of them. This is a concept known as linked fate and it’s widely embraced by young women. Two-thirds of young women “believe that in most ways or in every way, what happens to women in the US will have a bearing on them as well.” This feeling is particularly pronounced when it comes to experiences of gender discrimination, sexual harassment, and assault that cut across lines of race, class, and faith. In a recent interview with Pew Research Center, a 28-year-old woman shared this sentiment: “I feel it’s good for people to know they aren’t alone and there are a lot of people out there that have gone through the same things they may have.” 

It’s possible the abortion issue will recede from the public debate after the election. The Democratic Party has invested heavily in ads featuring abortion this year. Without that steady drumbeat of ads, the public’s attention may drift elsewhere. Yet for young women, the experiences of the last few years will have a lasting impact on their politics, personal priorities, and understanding of their place in American society.